Test of strength and character awaits Ian McGeechan's British Lions

In a sense, the Lions tour is like the Grand National. It doesn't matter how many last the course – although you do need a minimum before it is declared a no-contest – but it does matter how many set off on the biggest physical and mental examination of their lives.

Last time out – on the 2005 trip to New Zealand- Sir Clive Woodward started with a bloated playing roster of 45 and – despite operating two playing squads, each with its own coaching squad and back-up team- was still forced to call up more than 50 players because of injuries during the course of a seven week tour of the land of the Long White Cloud.

This time, Ian McGeechan, who as one of Woodward's lieutenants in charge of midweek operations in New Zealand, showed a great deal of outward loyalty and only a small amount of inner frustration, has reverted to tradition.

The most successful Lions coach of all time, with series wins in Australia in 1989 and South Africa eight years later, has announced that this year's tour party to South Africa, due to be announced next week, will number just 35 players.

Although he could decide that the set-piece confrontation is likely to be so attritional that he will need all the forwards he can get, I feel that he'll opt for a 19/16 split of forwards to backs. Because every match-day squad of 22 has to have at least 5 front-row forwards, he'll want to have three hookers and five props on hand at all times. Because back-row forwards tend to get injured more often than locks, he's likely to go for seven of the former and four of the latter.

To my mind, the form hookers of the Six Nations were Ireland's Jerry Flannery and Wales' Matthew Rees.

Before the tournament started, Scotland's Ross Ford was regarded as a shoo-in and, although, like all his compatriots, he didn't have an outstanding tournament I think he will edge out both Rory Best, Ireland's second string, and England's Lee Mears for the third hooking spot.

Andy Sheridan of England and Gethin Jenkins of Wales pick themselves as the loose-head props, while Phil Vickery of England and Euan Murray of Scotland do the same at tight head. For a pure scrummaging fifth prop, McGeechan could opt for Adam Jones of Wales but I think he'll go for Marcus Horan of Ireland, who is more of an all-rounder.

Paul O'Connell of Ireland and Welshman Alun Wyn-Jones are the likely test locks , with Donnccha O'Callaghan as the obvious back-up. England's Nick Kennedy may just get the nod as the fourth second row forward, if the line-out expertise he can offer is prized more highly than the all-round work attributes of Welshman Ian Gough.

In the back-row, David Wallace of Ireland and Martyn Williams of Wales should be the open-side flankers, with Irishman Stephen Ferris and Englishman Tom Croft contesting the number 6 shirt. Ireland's Jamie Heaslip and England's Nick Easter should be the number eights with the final back-row place going to one of two Welshmen. Ryan Jones began the season as favourite to captain the Lions. Andy Powell began the season off the radar. Jones was a revelation as a late Lions replacement in 2005. That experience may tip the balance.

To get the right 16 backs, the selectors will have first inked in their minimum requirements; two scrum-halves - Mike Phillips (Wales) and Mike Blair (Scotland); two outside-halves- Ronan O'Gara (Ireland) and Stephen Jones (Wales); 3 centres- Brian O'Driscoll(Ireland), Riki Flutey (England) and Tom Shanklin (Wales); three wings - Shane Williams (Wales), Tommy Bowe(Ireland) and, if Paul Sackey (England) is ruled out by injury, Leigh Halfpenny (Wales); one full-back- Lee Byrne (Wales). That leaves just five places to be filled by players who can provide the most versatile cover for all positions.

Although Toby Flood of England can cover centre, I don't think he'll be preferred to James Hook (Wales) at outside half.

Although Ben Foden can play full-back as well I don't think he'll be preferable to compatriot Harry Ellis at scrum-half.

Ireland's full-back Rob Kearney can cover the wing, while England's full-back Delon Armitage has experience at centre. What's more they shone in this year's Six Nations as did the improving Jamie Roberts.