A few weeks before England take on Wales in the Six Nations, we have our own West Country versus Wales weekend in the Heineken Cup – and both games are crucially important.

The two top clubs in our region – and I mean no disrespect to Bristol but the results speak for themselves – are both effectively playing semi-finals tomorrow.

We used to break the season down into little competitions and it must be the same for Gloucester and Bath.

Gloucester's match at home to Cardiff Blues tomorrow is a semi-final, as is Bath's trip to Newport Gwent Dragons. If they both win, then they have finals against French opposition next weekend – but they cannot look any further than tomorrow.

This weekend cannot quite make Gloucester and Bath's Heineken Cup campaigns, but it can certainly break them.

I would like to think both Gloucester and Bath will win this weekend, but they are going to have to work very hard for anything they get.

Neither side can afford a slip-up or they will be out of the Heineken Cup with one round of pool games still to play.

I watched the Cardiff- Gloucester game earlier in the season and I thought Cardiff were outstanding, but Gloucester are a different side at Kingsholm and I am sure the Blues will miss the influence of Paul Tito in the second row.

With all the injuries and late fitness tests, I worry that the Gloucester side could be slightly unsettled, but thankfully they are at home. And even though they lost at the Millennium Stadium, they certainly showed some attacking promise.

The Bath game is one that intrigues and concerns me. Newport are a tough side who play without too many thrills – they will defend and make life tough for Bath, just as they did at the Recreation Ground in October.

Maybe Bath were a bit over-confident that day, but you can guarantee they won't be tomorrow. Rodney Parade is never the nicest place to play and this is a real test for Bath.

Steve Meehan and his coaches must be telling their players to focus completely on the 80 minutes tomorrow. Forget international calls, the Six Nations or even Toulouse – he is absolutely spot on when he says there is "no Toulouse with the Dragons". If Bath play to their ability then they will edge a tough encounter, I am sure. But if they go down there and think anything less is acceptable then Newport will punish them.

And the last thing Bath want is to be playing Toulouse in front of a packed Rec next weekend with absolutely nothing riding on the game.

Even though Gloucester are playing a better team, I am a bit more confident about their chances of winning this weekend. I think it would take a mammoth effort from Cardiff – or something really inept from Gloucester – for Dean Ryan's side not to win.

These are the semi-finals – let's just hope there are two cup finals to talk about next week, one in Biarritz and one at the Rec.