Alastair Hignell: Rugby following football's quick-fix tactics

We got it wrong. And Dean Ryan's departure as director of rugby at Gloucester confirmed the extent of our error.

Those of us who thought that rugby was too sensible, too decent, too conservative and too tolerant to espouse the results-driven, money-orientated, quick-fix, hire 'em, fire 'em philosophy of football must think again.

It is now officially more precarious to be in charge of a Guinness Premiership team than it is to be a manager in football's top-flight.

Bryan Redpath, Ryan's successor at Kingsholm, will be the 41st individual to take on the role of director of rugby or head coach – and there's still some confusion as to which title the Scotsman will assume – in the Guinness Premiership since the start of the 2004-05 season.

Football, according to statistics issued by the Independent newspaper towards the end of last season, by contrast, has seen just under 60 managers operating in the Premier League, and experienced just over 40 changes at the top.

But there are 20 clubs in that competition, with 29 teams experiencing top-flight football in that period. Rugby's corresponding figures are 12 and 13, and the casualty rate among its leaders is alarming.

Even success doesn't guarantee stability or continuity; champions Leicester, for instance, have had five No 1s in as many campaigns, which puts them on a par with Newcastle United and Portsmouth, the least stable of the nation's major football teams.

Wasps and Sale, the only other teams to have won the Premiership this century, dispensed with their directors of rugby – Ian McGeechan and Philippe Saint Andre – only weeks before Gloucester sacked Ryan.

It seems that while head coaches insist that it takes half a dozen years to build a team and common sense would allow a new man three or four seasons to make his mark, club owners and boards of directors have nowhere near that kind of patience. At least Redpath knows what to expect...

And so, considering that there were few surprises in the squad named by South Africa coach Pieter de Villiers for the first Test in Durban on Saturday, do the Lions.

The absence of a specialist full-back in the original party may have given some cause for hope, but the selection of Frans Steyn – who kicked a massive drop goal from that position against England at Twickenham when he was a teenager – will have dampened any optimism. The absence of ferocious open-side flanker Schalk Burger might equally have suited the Lions, were it not for the fact that his replacement, Heinrich Brussow, has already produced a near match-winning display for the Cheetahs against the tourists.

De Villiers' reluctance to hand a first cap to Morne Steyn, the Blue Bulls' Super 14–winning outside-half, may mean that the Springboks are a little light in the goal-kicking department, but anyone who has seen preferred choice Ruan Pienaar slotting penalties from all angles, all distances and under all kinds of pressure, won't be counting any chickens.

Pienaar, like centres Adrian Jacobs and Jean de Villiers, is only just back from long-term injury and given that it is three weeks since any of the squad, bar Brussow, have played any meaningful rugby, the Lions are still hopeful of catching the Springboks cold. That said, they recognise that the standard reached by the Blue Bulls in their Super 14 final demolition of the Waikato Chiefs at the end of May was miles better than anything they have achieved in the intervening period. Only five Bulls make it into Saturday's starting line-up. But what a quintet! Wing Bryan Habana is a former IRB player of the year, while scrum-half Fourie du Preez was the outstanding No 9 at the last World Cup.

Pierre Spies is the fastest No 8 in world rugby, while second-row pairing Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha are the best locks on the planet.

Keeping any one of these quiet is a task in itself. Keeping all of them under wraps is a superhuman challenge. The Lions have not only got to do that, but also find their own ways of getting on the scoreboard.

They are massive underdogs, but they were on the eve of the first Test 12 years ago, when an outrageous Matt Dawson dummy sent them on their way to a wonderful series win. Lightning can't strike twice – or can it?