Who'll be mayor? Voting system means result is unpredictable
A DIFFERENT voting system to decide Bristol's elected mayor means the result is completely unpredictable.
Labour's Marvin Rees is the favourite to win the race to become the city's first figurehead.
But instead of using the first-past-the-post system as in local and general elections, voters will be able to put two X's on their ballot paper – a first and second choice.
Mr Rees is unlikely to win in the first round which means the second preference votes come into play – making it almost impossible to predict the winner.
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Under the Supplementary Vote (SV), there are two columns on the ballot paper.
Voters mark an X in each column – although they do not have to make a second choice if they don't want to.
Mr Rees is the favourite to emerge with the highest number of first choice votes.
But because there is a high number of candidates to split the votes, it is unlikely he will get a 50 per cent majority on the first count.
This means the second preference votes will come into play.
These are taken from the candidates who have been eliminated in the first round. Any of these second preference votes for the remaining two candidates are then added to their first-round totals.
Whichever candidate has the most votes will be declared the winner.
Political scientist Dr Lisa Harrison who is based at the University of the West of England, said: "Marvin Rees is the favourite to win the first round. But it is unlikely he will get a 50 per cent majority to win on the first preference votes.
"It is therefore the second preference votes which will make the big difference."
Dr Harrison said academics in Plymouth had recently carried out research into second preference votes which showed it was virtually impossible to predict the outcome.
She said: "In this type of election when you have so many independent and non-traditional party candidates, it is very difficult to work out people's logic when it comes to where they will put their cross with their second vote.
"For a Labour stalwart, for example, they will not be prepared to give their second preference to anyone.
"But others will vote for the candidate who they dislike the least or just put down a cross at random.
"We just cannot produce a model or predict second preference voting."
At the referendum in May which decided that Bristol should have an elected mayor, the highest turnouts were in middle class wards, north of the city while the Labour heartlands south of the river had extremely low polls.
The high turnout wards will favour George Ferguson (Independent), Geoff Gollop (Con) and Jon Rogers (Lib Dem).
Moreover, the election will be in a winter month with dark evenings after the clocks have turned back – Labour turnouts in bad weather are notoriously low.
All of these factors could conspire against the Labour candidate or at least make it extremely close for him.
Currently, Mr Rees is given odds of 4/6 while running a close second are Mr Ferguson and Dr Rogers, both at 7/2. Geoff Gollop (Con) and Spud Murphy (Ind) are both running at 20/1.
At the moment, there are 13 candidates who have said they will stand.
The votes will be counted on Friday, November 16 and the result is expected to be announced sometime during the late afternoon.
The result will also be declared for the new police commissioner to represent Avon and Somerset.
Comments
by gary_hopkins
Sunday, September 30 2012, 9:35AM
“@ matic-113
That is the eternal problem that the first past the post and this system give us.
Most of the potential candidates have absolutely no chance and in any event some of them will not stand.
Their names have come forward so they can make a point and in some cases they are single issue people seeking publicity for themselves or a cause.
If you are not keen on either of the likely winners with this system you face a choice of your view not being effectively taken into consideration or voting against the one you think will be most against your wishes.
If you had a fair system where you could rank all of the candidates in preference order your vote would be sure to count even if you put for example Jon rogers 4th and Labour 5th.Candidates are gradually eliminated until someone gets 50%.This is single transferable vote which Lib Dems and Greens favour and use. Other parties use it siometimes internally but do not think the public can be trusted with it.
It is certainly the case that at this stage(based on extensive independent polling) the biggest support is for
"anybody but Labour"
closely followed by
" I do notr know and may not vote"
But as soon as you realise that even the Tories know that they cannot win (the bookies are quoting 20-1) and that 85% + of them have said they will use their vote to back Jon Rogers to keep Labour out the pssible winners narrow to 2.”
by KBillies
Saturday, September 29 2012, 8:33PM
“Jon Rogers would be a very good Mayor.”
by matic_113
Saturday, September 29 2012, 5:01PM
“@by smoosername - You seem a little obsessed with George? not sure what you are trying to achieve? Who do you want to win??
@by gary_hopkins - don't have any confidence in rees or rogers - who do I vote for in the second vote??”
by gary_hopkins
Friday, September 28 2012, 4:57PM
“RobCrewsHole
I agree the system leaves a lot to be desired.
At least with the french system of 2 separate polls you do not have to guess who will be in the top 2 . It though does cost a lot more and it is difficult enough to get people to vote without requiring them to do it twice.
Much better to allow people to rank all of the candidates in order of their choice and that way everyones vote would count and there is no pressure.
First past the post and this system work against non mainstream candidates.”
by RobCrewsHole
Friday, September 28 2012, 3:15PM
“@Gary_Hopkins
The problem with using your first vote for an outsider, and then your 2nd vote for whoever you consider to be the best of the possible winners, is that your 2nd vote won't get counted if your 2nd choice ends up 3rd on the first vote. If you had voted for them on the first vote it might have got them into the top two.
Except of course that if everyone votes for the same outsider then they might get into the top two!
The same voting system is being used for the Police & Crime Commissioner.”
by smoosername
Friday, September 28 2012, 1:31PM
“We will just have to agree to disagree on the definition of a supporter then!
But I'm glad we can agree that the announcement of his cancellation of the LibDem Membership (in order to campaign as independent) is a bad timing at best and suspicious at most.
P.S. I don't know if George did pay by direct debit or not... but from the libDem renewal form "If you are an existing member we will not debit your account until your membership is due for renewal. We will write to you 10 days before taking the first payment saying how much it is and when it will be made." so he would have had a chance to cancel if he no longer wanted to pay by that method.”
by Lone_Ranger
Friday, September 28 2012, 1:24PM
“Thank you Gary and Stockwood Pete - afer I posted I realised that it was a bit of a dumb question as the initial vote would already have been counted.
Obviously the best way is to vote for who you want and not use the second vote else, similar to the LibDems nationally, you simply become an enabler for someone you didn't want in the first palce.”
by green_man
Friday, September 28 2012, 1:18PM
“@smoosername - So he didn't cancel his membership when he became unhappy with the LibDem party.He didn't cancel his LibDem membership when he was congratulating the LibDems on a successful election result, despite not supporting them any more. He didn't cancel his membership when the LibDems asked if they could renew his direct debit, despite not liking the party any more. He didn't cancel his membership when Bristol announced it would be holding a mayor referendum, in which he was considering standing.
He didn't cancel his membership when it was announced Bristol had voted for a mayor, in which he was considering standing.
That's right, he cancelled moments before announcing his intention to stand as an independent, despite being a member of the LibDem for 20+ years!
If you stopped campaigning for the Green Party, would you no longer be a green party supporter?"
_____________________________________
He should have resigned before he did, no doubt about that. I suspect he wishes he had too. However, you are still exaggerating greatly for effect here eg you say he congratulated the Lib Dems on a successful election result but when you read the article in your link there hardly anything that qualifies as congratulation at all and George actually says 'I still remain a bit wary of party labels and hope the Lib Dem team will be inclusive, drawing on all talents in facing the great challenges of education, environment, housing, community cohesion and transport...'. By the way you dont ask if you can renew a direct debit, instead debiting happens automatically, that's the whole point, so there a line of exaggeration that can be discounted. Your criticism would be much more valid and weighty if it had more substance to it eg if there was ANY substantial evidence that he actively campaigned for the Lib Dems but there isn't.
If I stopped campaigning for the Green Party I would indeed for most practical purposes you no longer be much of a green party supporter - this is why political partieswork hard at trying to get people to actually do things, not just joint and then stay dormant. Its activity for a party that most makes you a supporter, whether a member of it or not by the way.”
by gary_hopkins
Friday, September 28 2012, 1:10PM
“The voting system allows people to register their vote for who they would ideally wish to win and then have a second column vote to choose between the likely winners.
As many people vote to keep someone out rather than to get someone in there is a logic to it but it is not ideal as it does not give an absolute assurance that your vote will count.
So if someone votes
Column 1 for an outsider independent
Column 2 another outsider
Their vote will almost certainly be lost and have no effect.
On the other hand if they vote
Column 1 for an outsider independent
Column 2 For Jon rogers Lib dem
or Marvin Rees Labour
Their first choice will almost certainly not count but their second preference could make a difference.
Lone Ranger
The specific question posed about voting for the same person twice cannot help.
If the person finishes in the first 2 you have voted for them anyway and you only have 1 vote that will count.
If they are not in the first 2 they are eliminated.
You also would face a danger of the returning officer declaring it invalid but I would argue that it showed clear intention.”
by stockwoodpete
Friday, September 28 2012, 12:50PM
“@ Lone_Ranger
That would be utterly pointless; that second preference vote only comes into play when the first preference choice has already been eliminated.”