TALKING POINT: Which three teams will be relegated from the npower Championship this season?
Speaking to journalists following Bristol City’s 2-0 win over Middlesbrough at Ashton Gate, head coach Sean O’Driscoll highlighted the fine line that exists between confidence and complacency in professional sport.
City may be bottom of the npower Championship right now, but the players are currently buoyed by a level of self-belief that appeared improbable just a couple of months ago.
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But if winning breeds confidence – and City are now unbeaten in their last four games – there is little chance O’Driscoll’s charges will fall prey to complacency any time soon.
Results elsewhere made sure of that in midweek, Barnsley defeating Brighton at Oakwell and Peterborough earning a draw against Leeds United at Elland Road to dump the Robins back at the foot of the table.
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The way things are shaping up at the wrong end of the Championship, one thing is for sure - City cannot afford to rely on favours from others if they are to avoid being relegated to League One.
It looks as though an unusually high number of points will be needed to stay up this season and the Robins, currently on 39, will very likely have to win five of their remaining nine games to be sure of retaining their second-tier status.
On the plus side, any three of the bottom 12 could conceivably go down at this moment in time. Only seven points separate 13th-placed Blackpool and basement team City and a lot could still change between now and the final round of games on May 4.
The Robins have been outstanding in front of their own fans at Ashton Gate since O’Driscoll arrived in mid-January and remaining home games against Sheffield Wednesday, Bolton, Birmingham and Huddersfield appear to hold the key to their fate.
But their away form has been less impressive, just one point having been accrued from trips to Leeds, Blackburn, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Blackpool and there is no better time to put that particular record of under-achievement right than against fellow strugglers Wolves at Molineux this weekend.
I recall a conversation with previous City manager Derek McInnes in mid-December when he said he felt the relegated teams would come from the bottom five back then.
Certainly, City, Barnsley and Peterborough are still under threat, but Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich have since improved their form and position and a number of other clubs have been unexpectedly dragged into trouble.
Although it is usually better to have points on the board at this stage of the season, the improvements made by City, Barnsley and Peterborough mean those sides immediately above them are coming under increased pressure.
I tend to look at trends at this stage in the season and Wolves, Huddersfield and Millwall are all on a downward trajectory right now.
For so long favourites to go down, Barnsley, Peterborough and Bristol City have given themselves a real chance of survival. Could it be that all three retain their Championship status to be replaced in the bottom three by teams that felt they were safe just a few weeks ago?
Predicting the bottom three is a game we can all play in the coming days and weeks and here are a list of the remaining fixtures to help you make a more informed opinion.
PETERBOROUGH
March
16 v Blackpool (A)
30 v Peterborough (H)
April
2 v Middlesbrough (A)
6 v Huddersfield (A)
13 v Watford (H)
16 v Brighton (H)
20 v Derby (A)
27 v Sheffield Wed (H)
May
4 v Crystal Palace (A)
BARNSLEY
March
16 v Watford (H)
30 v Sheffield Wed (A)
April
1 v Leicester (H)
6 v Crystal Palace (A)
9 v Cardiff (A)
13 v Charlton (H)
16 v Derby (H)
20 v Nottingham Forest (A)
27 v Hull (H)
May
4 v Huddersfield (A)
WOLVES
March
16 v Bristol City (H)
30 v Middlesbrough (H)
April
1 v Birmingham (A)
6 v Bolton (A)
13 v Huddersfield (H)
16 v Hull City (H)
20 v Charlton (A)
27 v Burnley (H)
May
4 v Brighton (A)
IPSWICH TOWN
March
16 v Bolton (H)
30 v Leeds (H)
April
1 v Millwall (A)
6 v Derby (A)
13 v Hull City (H)
16 v Crystal Palace (H)
20 v Sheffield Wed (A)
27 v Birmingham (H)
May
4 v Burnley (A)
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY
March
16 v Cardiff (H)
30 v Barnsley (H)
April
1 v Bristol City (A)
6 v Blackburn (H)
9 v Millwall (A)
13 v Leeds (A)
16 v Blackpool (A)
20 v Ipswich (H)
27 v Peterborough (A)
May
4 v Middlesbrough (H)
BRISTOL CITY
March
16 v Wolves (A)
29 v Derby (A)
April
1 v Sheffield Wed (H)
6 v Burnley (A)
13 v Bolton (H)
16 v Birmingham (H)
20 v Hull (A)
27 v Huddersfield (H)
May
V Charlton (A)
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN
March
16 v Leeds (A)
30 v Hull City (H)
April
2 v Bolton (A)
6 v Peterborough (H)
13 v Wolves (A)
16 v Blackburn (A)
20 v Millwall (H)
27 v Bristol City (A)
May
4 v Barnsley (H)
MILLWALL
March
16 v Charlton (A)
29 v Leicester (A)
April
1 v Ipswich (H)
6 v Birmingham (A)
9 v Sheffield Wed (H)
13 v Crystal Palace (H)
16 v Watford (H)
20 v Huddersfield (A)
27 v Nottingham Forest (H)
May
4 v Derby (A)
BLACKBURN ROVERS
March
17 v Burnley (H)
29 v Blackpool (H)
April
1 v Cardiff (A)
6 v Sheffield Wed (A)
13 v Derby (H)
16 v Huddersfield (H)
20 v Watford (A)
23 v Millwall (A)
27 v Crystal Palace (H)
May
4 v Birmingham (A)
DERBY COUNTY
March
16 v Leicester (H)
29 v Bristol City (H)
April
1 v Leeds (A)
6 v Ipswich (H)
13 v Blackburn (A)
16 v Barnsley (A)
20 v Peterborough (H)
27 v Blackpool (A)
May
4 v Millwall (H)
BIRMINGHAM CITY
March
16 v Middlesbrough (A)
29 v Crystal Palace (A)
April
1 v Wolves (H)
6 v Millwall (H)
12 v Leicester (A)
16 v Bristol City (A)
20 v Leeds (H)
27 v Ipswich (A)
May
4 v Blackburn (H)
BLACKPOOL
March
16 v Peterborough (H)
29 v Blackburn (A)
April
1 v Crystal Palace (H)
6 v Nottingham Forest (A)
13 v Burnley (H)
16 v Sheffield Wed (H)
20 v Brighton (A)
27 v Derby (H)
May
4 v Bolton (A)
22 Comments
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by THEIRONS
Friday, March 15 2013, 12:08PM
“Burgevy111 --- Another member of the **** heads intelligence along with of course recently awarded thicko of this year and every year BS15 ****HEAD. Always nice of the man who believes it is better to draw than to win, and condescending as always I give you Manchead
As for Bristol's premier side I could not care less which three clubs are relegated. As long as BCFC are not one not one of them”
by piledriver
Thursday, March 14 2013, 7:11PM
“@manchestergas:
I'll explain.
We have 39 points and 27 to play for so we could finish with 66 points if we win the lot.Of course, the same could be said for Wolves, Posh etc, etc but with a significant number of games between the clubs, they can't all win.
Do I think we'll win the lot? No, but I think we'll pick up the 13 points we need from the 27 based on the fact that SOD's points take is about 52% since taking over and we can't get any worse away.
It'll be close but a lot of clubs with up to, say 45 points on the board will be looking over their shoulders and that situation could get even closer after Saturday.
@BS15GASLOYAL:
And back comes the League Twoer after a win.
Given your attendances mate,I'm surprised you're not begging them to stay.5,000? You must all be on first name terms.”
by CiderheadNott
Thursday, March 14 2013, 10:44AM
“Sorry for repeats - was getting non receipt message”
by CiderheadNott
Thursday, March 14 2013, 10:31AM
“Manchester Gas - Our fate is our own hands because of the other fixtures. With 14 clubs separated by just 9 points it means that the other teams in the mix will be sharing and/or dropping points, so any team in the mix, City included, that goes on a good run will survive.
In addition there is the psychological impact on a lot of these teams not used to fighting relegation and a mini run of bad results for them will be enough to put them into trouble.
One of the most striking things about the Championship is that anybody can beat anybody and that is why the table is so tight.
It'll go to the wire, and I, of course, will hope City will not be involved at that late stage.
Manchester Gas, I'm curious. I'm a City fan and a season ticket holder and go to most home matches. Do you go to Bristol from Manchester to see your team often?”
by CiderheadNott
Thursday, March 14 2013, 10:31AM
“Manchester Gas - Our fate is our own hands because of the other fixtures. With 14 clubs separated by just 9 points it means that the other teams in the mix will be sharing and/or dropping points, so any team in the mix, City included, that goes on a good run will survive.
In addition there is the psychological impact on a lot of these teams not used to fighting relegation and a mini run of bad results for them will be enough to put them into trouble.
One of the most striking things about the Championship is that anybody can beat anybody and that is why the table is so tight.
It'll go to the wire, and I, of course, will hope City will not be involved at that late stage.
Manchester Gas, I'm curious. I'm a City fan and a season ticket holder and go to most home matches. Do you go to Bristol from Manchester to see your team often?”
by CiderheadNott
Thursday, March 14 2013, 10:30AM
“Manchester Gas - Our fate is our own hands because of the other fixtures. With 14 clubs separated by just 9 points it means that the other teams in the mix will be sharing and/or dropping points, so any team in the mix, City included, that goes on a good run will survive.
In addition there is the psychological impact on a lot of these teams not used to fighting relegation and a mini run of bad results for them will be enough to put them into trouble.
One of the most striking things about the Championship is that anybody can beat anybody and that is why the table is so tight.
It'll go to the wire, and I, of course, will hope City will not be involved at that late stage.
Manchester Gas, I'm curious. I'm a City fan and a season ticket holder and go to most home matches. Do you go to Bristol from Manchester to see your team often?”
by manchestergas
Thursday, March 14 2013, 12:26AM
“CiderheadNott - "City have their own fate in their own hands."
umm, how do you work that one out??
the phrase you use is generally considered to mean that you are ahead of the pack or have games in hand, and that if you win them all no-one could mathematically catch you.
Neither situation is true in your case.
You are in a fight and whatever SoD says you HAVE to look around you and hope the others slip up.”
by BS15GASLOYAL
Wednesday, March 13 2013, 9:39PM
“and the answer is barnsley,peterborough,bristol city 1982 ltd,will be relegated but fear not the rugby club will be promoted .....”
by BCFCfinker
Wednesday, March 13 2013, 6:46PM
“BTW Andy, haven't you ever used a table before?
Your presentation skills have a lot to be desired.
And as to the gas, you only have to make up 12 points over the remaining games to stand a chance of getting out of L2, 16 if you want an automatic spot. Looks like City will still be No. 1 in Bristol come what may.
COYR”
by BCFCfinker
Wednesday, March 13 2013, 6:33PM
“Peterborough V Peterborough on the 30th, that will be an interesting game :p
Mind you, I suppose Cardiff are doing what they normally do at this time of year... choke, it might be the better option for us :D”