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Rumours that George Ferguson has more than 50 per cent of mayor vote

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Friday, November 16, 2012
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Emily_Koch

Votes will be counted today to find out who Bristolians have chosen to be their elected mayor.

Sources suggest not only that the Lib Dem and Tory vote has collapsed, giving George Ferguson the edge - but also that he has more than 50 per cent of the vote.

  1. Mayor logo 2012

This means that the result could be known at around lunchtime, when the first votes have been counted.

Figures show that the turnout for the election was disappointing - with only 27.92 per cent of the electorate going to the polls.

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The number is slightly higher than the turnout for the referendum in May, which was 24 per cent.

Here is a map showing the turnout for different areas of Bristol:

The Top 10 turnout wards

WardMayoral Referendum TurnoutMayoral Election Turnout% Difference
Henleaze34.00%42.64%8.64%
Westbury-on-Trym34.00%36.54%2.54%
Bishopston20.90%35.55%14.65%
Redland24.90%33.55%8.65%
Stoke Bishop26.20%32.65%6.45%
Ashley20.90%32.47%11.57%
Southville19.80%32.27%12.47%
Clifton22.50%31.37%8.87%
Easton18.60%29.21%10.61%
Cotham19.40%27.89%8.49%

Bottom 10 wards for election turnout

WardMayoral Referendum TurnoutMayoral Election Turnout% Difference
Hartcliffe11.60%11.21%-0.39%
Filwood9.90%12.47%2.57%
Bishopsworth12.90%13.06%0.16%
Southmead11.90%14.19%2.29%
Whitchurch Park15.00%14.42%-0.58%
St George East14.30%14.45%0.15%
Hengrove16.70%14.99%-1.71%
Hillfields15.60%15.76%0.16%
Avonmouth16.10%16.84%0.74%
Stockwood19.80%17.47%-2.33%

Top 10 list showing the difference between the % turnout at the referendum, and for the % turnout for the election

WardMayoral Referendum TurnoutMayoral Election Turnout% Difference
Bishopston20.90%35.55%14.65%
Southville19.80%32.27%12.47%
Ashley20.90%32.47%11.57%
Easton18.60%29.21%10.61%
Clifton22.50%31.37%8.87%
Redland24.90%33.55%8.65%
Henleaze34.00%42.64%8.64%
Cotham19.40%27.89%8.49%
Lawrence Hill13.70%21.63%7.93%
Windmill Hill19.90%27.68%7.78%

For the police and crime commissioner election, turnout in Bristol was 27.48 per cent - also very low, but higher than other regions which saw an average turnout of between 10 and 15 per cent.

The important thing now for the winning mayoral candidate will be to get a healthy majority, despite the low turnout, so that they can say they have a clear mandate from the people.

ThisisBristol spoke to voters as they went to the polls yesterday:

ThisisBristol conducted a small exit poll of voters as they left the polls yesterday.

A total of 100 voters were asked who they had given their first vote to, at four different polling stations - St George Library, Redland Library, Brunel Fields in Ashley Down and Tyndale Baptist Church in Clifton.

The results (below) show that George Ferguson was the most popular choice out of the voters we asked with 55 of the votes, with Marvin Rees in second place with 20.

Green Party candidate Daniella Radice had nine votes, Lib Dem Jon Rogers had seven, independent Tim Collins had three, Tory Geoff Gollop had two, with Neil Maggs, Philip Pover, Stoney Garnett and Tom Baldwin with one apiece.

In our exit poll, no votes had been cast for Spud Murphy, Owain George, Rich Fisher, Dave Dobbs and Tony Britt.

The count of votes cast starts this morning - you can follow live coverage of how the day unfolds on ThisisBristol and get involved with some live debate.

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Comments

  • Profile image for KBillies

    by KBillies

    Sunday, November 18 2012, 5:47PM

    “George well done.

    I am so glad he did.

    Its in the interest of the City.”

  • Profile image for Adityatom

    by Adityatom

    Sunday, November 18 2012, 2:17PM

    “"Congrats to the newly elected Mayor of Bristol City Mr George Ferguson. Now election is over and we all are looking at how the new Mayor delivers his promises. Good wishes."

    Tom Aditya”

  • Profile image for Adityatom

    by Adityatom

    Sunday, November 18 2012, 2:16PM

    “Congrats to the newly elected Mayor of Bristol City Mr George Ferguson. Now election is over and we all are looking at how the new Mayor delivers his promises. Good wishes.”

  • Profile image for J12345678

    by J12345678

    Friday, November 16 2012, 6:45PM

    “Interesting that even with the second preference system, George still didn't get 50% of votes. Nearly 4,000 votes from the eliminated candidates didn't specify 2nd choice. And with most people not voting it feels like 'none of the above' won. Let's have a better, clearer system next time. But get on with it now George, hope the party machines don't obstruct your ideas and efforts.”

  • Profile image for Geoffers007

    by Geoffers007

    Friday, November 16 2012, 3:24PM

    “I can't see Marvin Rees overcoming a 5500 deficit in the second round. And if he does lose it will be as much to do with his lack of previous experience as anything else. Being a Mayor is a huge job and without experience of running a business or of being a local councillor, he could have been overwhelmed. He wasn't a good choice by Labour, but perhaps if he gets elected as a councillor next year, his next attempt might be more successful.”

  • Profile image for Jonboy100

    by Jonboy100

    Friday, November 16 2012, 3:21PM

    “---"by stayclassy: "A rich old man wins and a poor young black man loses...So much for progress."---

    Pathetic. First, as has been said, Rees is not poor, he's wealthy. Second, Ferguson is not old at 65 and always seems youthful. But the main point is why would we want a "poor young black man" just for the progressive sake of it? We want someone with experience who is capable of running a £1 billion budget. Typical Left-wing, Socialist comment, and ageist to boot.”

  • Profile image for J12345678

    by J12345678

    Friday, November 16 2012, 3:05PM

    “With around 5,500 difference between George and Marvin, there is all to play for with the approx 20,000 second preference votes of Con, Lib and Green. Con prob went for George, Green either Lib or independent (incl George) and Lib well anyone's guess. Some of the eliminated independents also backed George ahead of the vote which may sway their teams. Result around 3.40pm. I do hope it's an independent future for Bristol after decades of miserable party squabbles and getting nothing done.”

  • Profile image for Brennus

    by Brennus

    Friday, November 16 2012, 2:48PM

    “In Australia it's mandatory to vote - there can be no arguments about engagement and mandate with that approach.”

  • Profile image for BristolDJ

    by BristolDJ

    Friday, November 16 2012, 2:34PM

    “@brennus

    Oh I agree.. But that is vote apathy and it runs deep in this country as everyone now expects to have everything done for them. Just because people don't engage in democracy doesn't mean it isn't working. Least we have a say, unlike the Chinese his week who had the next 7 leaders chosen for them for the next 10 years. Would rather have a few people vote and decide than none.”

  • Profile image for PaulS81

    by PaulS81

    Friday, November 16 2012, 2:33PM

    “Part of the apathy is surely down to the fact no one is really sure what effect a mayor will have on Bristol. After this first 4 (or is it 5) year term we will have a much better understanding of the powers and we will see if things have changed for the better (or worse), therefore for the next mayoral election you would hope the turn out would be a lot higher. The PCC is another matter entirely, though if you are voting for a mayor most would also vote for a PCC whilst they are at it.

    As for comparing union ballots to election turnouts. Everyone has a choice to vote or not in an election, if you don't then that's your choice so don't moan about the outcome, but in a union ballot only a select few are allowed (members obviously) to vote and even fewer actually bother therefore a very small number of people can disrupt and effect the lives of a great many people.”

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