DON'T put money on it, of course, but Gordon Brown could call a snap election very soon – in theory. And I think it might be his last best chance.

Some would say Gordon's worst decision since becoming premier was his refusal to go to the country in November last year. He was riding high, though the tide was beginning to turn. It wasn't going to be easy to justify an election at that point, it's true. Even so, I think he might have won. Instead, he bottled it.

What about this November? It's not true to say that autumn polls have never favoured Labour, although the shorter the days and the grimmer the weather the harder it is to get the vote out. Or so they say.

But if the Glenrothes Parliamentary byelection on November 6 goes a lot less badly than expected for Labour, Gordon may well wonder whether this isn't the signal for a national poll.

He desperately needs a secure mandate, after all, to take us not just through the bad times over the next year or so but on to those "sunny uplands" Winston Churchill was always banging on about.

Commentators reviewing some of the latest opinion polls are comparing Brown's situation with Churchill's before the end of the Second World War. Interviewees seem to be telling the pollsters: "Gordon's the best man to lead the country – for now. But come peacetime, we want a change."

Here's my view. Next year, we'll be deep in the proverbial mire. Brown needs to keep up the latest improvement in his performance ratings to stand even a chance in a 2009 election.

In 2010, on the other hand – still the favoured date and the latest possible for the next general election – things could be worse.

Either the credit crunch will have devoured him. Or when he has finally managed to turn things round, he could find voters in fickle mood. "Ta very much, Gordon," they might say. "Now we'll try that nice Mr Cameron."

But if Brown chooses instead to hold an election some time between now and Christmas, there is all to play for. The developing recession becomes the main theatre of war – and Brown casts himself as the man to win it.

Are the Tories ready?