Thank goodness for the Entente Cordiale. You can say what you like about France, but you have to admit that, in recent rugby times, they've more than done their bit to bolster the ancient understanding.

It's not just that England have won their last three matches against the Tricolores, including the last two at the Stade de France, but that the manner of those wins has been so heartwarming and the timing of them so crucial.

Last year's win in Paris was an unexpected display of character by a team that, after reaching the World Cup final the previous autumn, had been ambushed by Wales at Twickenham and played unimpressively in defeating Italy in Rome. The previous season's victory at Twickenham was a marvellous pick-me-up after the Croke Park humiliation by Ireland.

And then there's England's World Cup record against the French. In 1991, England had only finished runners-up in their pool but they smashed the French in an extraordinary match in Paris on their way to the final.

Clive Woodward's 2003 world champions disposed of France in a rain-soaked semi-final in Sydney, while Brian Ashton's men turned the form-books upside down in 2007 to defeat a team that, after beating the All Blacks in Cardiff, were overwhelming favourites on their own soil.

So the history books look good for Martin Johnson this weekend, even if the form books do not.

France may have lost to Ireland in Dublin by fewer points than England, but they played much better.

Their victory over Scotland in Paris compares with England's win over Italy at Twickenham – laboured, lumpy but never in doubt.

While their last match, in a Friday-night thriller against Wales in Paris suggested that Marc Levremont's team were, in spite of all the bizarre selections, at last starting to get it together.

If that result can easily be seen as a good omen for England – just as New Zealand were overwhelming favourites for the 2007 World Cup, so were Wales for the 2009 Six Nations – the red rose army will be hoping that France will similarly fail to capitalise. However, the French selection for this Sunday's showdown looks ominous.

For the first time in his tenure it appears that Marc Lievremont has picked a team with the opposition in mind rather than some unfathomable whim of his own.

There's still only one outside half in the squad, but at least Francois Trinh-Duc is in the starting line-up this time and not on the bench. The goal-kicking which, before Morgan Parra's performance against Wales, was regarded as distinctly iffy, has been further strengthened by the recall of Damian Traille.

Traille, along with the returning Jerome Thion and Julien Bonnaire, also brings both oodles of experience and greater bulk, suggesting that Lievremont has finally adopted the principle of horses for courses.

The way that France changed their defence against Wales – from the less confrontational drift to the in-your-face blitz – suggests that they are also anticipating a brutal physical battle at Twickenham.

History suggests they'd be right. England's inclination in times of crisis is to dig deeper and be more bloody-minded. Both Ireland and Wales, the two teams to have beaten them in this year's Six Nations, have testified that the matches were the toughest physical confrontations they have experienced.

But this England have still to discover that you need brains as well as brawn to succeed at international rugby.

The coaches have spent this week telling us how good England have been in defence – restricting each of their opponents to one try each.

And, in attack, only Ireland have scored more tries. But they know as well as we do that it's the ability to think clearly in the heat of battle that counts.

For all the statistics that tell us that England can score tries, there are others that tell us that they can also butcher try-scoring opportunities.

For all the statistics that tell us how good their defence is, there are others that tell us how many kickable penalties they give away and how many minutes they spend in the sin-bin.

The coaches would have us believe that England are making progress but there's a danger that they'll trot out a reduced penalty count and an absence of yellow cards at the weekend to suggest that they're heading in the right direction.

That won't do. By then, there'll only be one more match to play in the championship and a win against a weak Scotland, however it was achieved, would tell us nothing.

The harsh truth remains that unless England beat France this weekend, Martin Johnson's first season as England manager will have been a wasted exercise.